National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
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Request Details Page

Number / Title: 16-041:  Use of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Information at Weather Forecast Offices


Provide consistent and calibrated Probabilistic quantitative precipitation information to WFOs in support of Impact-Based Decision Support Services, and thereby information about the reasonable range of possible outcomes for a rainfall event.

Originator: Kevin Scharfenberg Office: NWS/SR/MFL  
Submitter: David Novak Office: W/NP31
SUBMITTER COMMENTS:  Eli Jacks has directed our effort towards the Public SPT. Please also include Mary Mullusky and David Soroka as consultants per their respective service program interest in this project.
Analyst: Carlos Diaz Date Entered: 2016-11-30
Primary SPT: Public Wx Team Lead: A. Horvitz
All Teams Reviewing: Public Wx, Water, Winter, National Blend of Models, Impacts Catalog, Social Science
Status: Assigned:Soln. Alternatives/Investment Justification Submitter Priority: Moderate

Decision / Status information
Tier   Date Disposition / Status
Tier 1 - Designated Submitter 2016-11-30 Approved
Tier 2 - Service Program Team Review2017-03-31 Approved by SPT
Tier 3 - AFS Director Review 2017-04-30 Approved by AFT (Tier 3), schedule for MDC
Tier 3 Notes:  AFS Comments 1. Recommend developing an experiment using a similar approach as the probabilistic snow demonstration (using WPC, collaboration, similar colors, messaging, etc) 2. Goal would be a national implementation using a collaborative approach 3. Need an OCONUS capability
Tier 4 - MDC Validation 2017-11-13 MDC has Validated the Requirement.
Exec Council Validation (If Transformational)  

PIC related details
Date Disposition / Status : Initial meeting
2018-01-26 Assigned to STI for assessment
PIC Notes:
Portfolio/Dev. org and Development Status:  
Date Disposition / Status : Latest meeting (if addressed more than once)
2018-07-20 Update: FY-19 AOP
PIC Notes:Part of FY19 AOP (NBM 3.2). Needs to be centrally supported (GFE and web-display). Work in collaboration with DISS. 7/20/18- STI assigned action to schedule meeting to further discuss this and then follow-up with PIC secretary. STI/AFS/DIS meeting scheduled for 8/24/18.

Available Documents
Document Type Document Link
Mission Need or Requirement Request 16-041_Probabilistic_QPF_Revised.docx
Validation Decision Information Document 16-041_16-041_VID_signedAFS.pdf
Investment Justification
Products Catalog Link (Experimental or approved Operational)