Pierce County and Southeast Appling County Georgia Christmas Eve Tornado

...STORM SURVEY FOR THE PIERCE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST APPLING COUNTY GEORGIA EF-1 TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-1
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  9.64 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   60-100 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             DEC 24 2014 
START TIME:             1250 PM EST
START LOCATION:         8 MILES NORTH OF BLACKSHEAR / PIERCE / GA 
LAT/LON:                31.406 / -82.251
END LOCATION:           8 MILES NORTH OF PATTERSON / APPLING / GA 
END_LAT/LON:            31.505 / -82.137

Updatedmap31Dec2014

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AFTERNOON IN PIERCE COUNTY AND APPLING COUNTY GEORGIA. THE METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE CONDUCTED THE SURVEY...DETERMINING THAT THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES TO THE NORTH OF BLACHSHEAR ALONG WALKERVILLE ROAD IN BETWEEN TAYLOR FARM ROAD AND EAST HORSESHOE ROAD AROUND 1250 PM EST.  LOW-END EF-1 DAMAGE WITH TORNADIC WINDS OF 100 TO 105 MPH WAS NOTED ALONG THE TORNADO PATH AS IT CROSSED GEORGIA STATE ROAD 121/15 INTO BRISTOL...INCLUDING DAMAGE TO 7 HOMES... POWERLINES DOWNED...AND LARGE TREES SNAPPED. EF-0 DAMAGE WAS NOTED AFTER THE TORNADO CROSSED GEORGIA STATE ROAD 121/15...WITH THE TORNADO CONTINUING ITS PATH NEAR SPOTTED FARM ROAD AND SONGBIRD PLACE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF BLACKSHEAR...THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST CROSSING SALTILLA CREEK INTO SOUTHEAST APPLING COUNTY INTO THE LONG BRANCH COMMUNITY.  THE MAXIMUM WIDTH OF THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 60-100 YARDS. PIERCE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES IN THE VICINITY OF THE TORNADO. A SKYWARN SPOTTER IN APPLING COUNTY REPORTED TREES DOWNED, DEBRIS IN YARDS, ROOF OFF OF FARMING EQUIPMENT, LARGE SHINGLES OFF OF A LARGE PORTION OF A ROOF AND A SNAPPED POWER POLE.   

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Waves of Heavy Rainfall and Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Tue-Wed

…Heavy Rainfall Potential through Wednesday…

…Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms NE Florida late Tuesday through Wednesday..
Synopsis & Timing

A swath of moderate rainfall along a warm front will continue to shift northward this morning over NE Florida and then over SE Georgia this afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, but there is little potential for severe storms today. The main hazard will be locally heavy rainfall. Thus far, NWS Doppler radar indicated 24-hr rainfall across portions of Marion County of 2-2.5 inches.
The swath of heavier rainfall will continue to shift northward over SE Georgia tonight trailed by scattered to isolated showers over NE Florida into Tuesday morning.

A more widespread heavy rainfall event will unfold  Tuesday  afternoon through Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with an extended period of heavy rainfall expected across inland SE Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley of NE Florida. There is also the potential for a few strong to severe storms during this period.

Rainfall will gradually diminish west to east Wednesday night trailing a cold frontal passage. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by Thursday, Christmas day.

Impacts

The main local impact from this storm system will be widespread heavy rainfall with storm totals nearing 3-5 inches. Locally higher amounts are likely especially over portions of the Suwannee River Valley. There is also the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday afternoon through early  Wednesday especially across the Suwannee River Valley.

Rainfall:

At this time, widespread flooding is not a major concern given that it has almost been a month since significant rainfall fell across most locations. Waves of heavy rainfall are expected during two distinct periods.  The first wave of moderate rainfall will continue to lift northward today, with a break in persistent widespread rainfall tonight and early Tuesday morning. The second wave of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late Tuesday through Wednesday ahead of cold front.

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Storm Hazards:

A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday across northeast Florida. A few strong storms may impact southeast Georgia Tuesday Night, but instability will be more limited over this area. There will be a variety of strong to severe storms hazards including gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail, and the potential for brief tornadoes, especially across the Suwannee River Valley Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

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Please continue to monitor this evolving weather pattern.
Additional Information Resources:
NWS Jacksonville Webpage:  weather.gov/jax
NWS Jacksoville Facebook:  facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Jacksonville.gov
NWS Jacksonville Twitter:   twitter.com/NWSJacksonville
AHPS River Forecasts:  water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax

Heavy Rainfall Potential through Wednesday; Slight Risk of Severe Storms Late Tuesday

…Heavy Rainfall Potential through Wednesday…

…Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms NE Florida late Tuesday…

Synopsis & Timing

A very dynamic weather pattern will unfold over the southeast region over the next several days as a strong storm system develops across the central United States. Waves of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will impact the local area with embedded isolated thunderstorms beginning this afternoon, then a more widespread heavy rainfall event is expected Tuesday through Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe storms are possible across northeast Florida Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night. Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will impact the area Wednesday, with rainfall gradually ending west to east Wednesday night trailing a cold frontal passage. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by Thursday, Christmas day.

Impacts
The main local impact from this evolving storm system will be widespread heavy rainfall with storm totals nearing  3-4 inches across much of NE Florida, and 2-3 inches across SE Georgia. Locally higher amounts are likely especially over portions of the Suwannee River Valley. There is also the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night across Northeast Florida.
 
Rainfall:

At this time, widespread flooding is not a major concern given that it has almost been a month since significant rainfall fell across most locations. In addition, the rounds of heavy rain are expected during two distinct periods.  The first wave of moderate rainfall is expected later this afternoon through early Monday. Rainfall is expected to decrease in rate and coverage Monday afternoon through Monday night. The second wave of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late Tuesday through Wednesday ahead of cold front.
Graphic1_21Dec2014

Storm Hazards:

At this time, the best window of opportunity for strong to severe storms is Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across northeast Florida. A few strong storms may impact southeast Georgia Tuesday Night, but instability will be more limited over this area. There will be a variety of strong to severe storms hazards including gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail, and the potential for brief tornadoes, especially across the Suwannee River Valley Tuesday evening.  The threat for severe storms may shift into early Wednesday if forecast models continue to trend slower with the frontal passage.
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This storm system is very dynamic and forecast models are in fair agreement through Monday morning, then begin to diverge with the timing of local impacts. Please continue to monitor this evolving weather pattern.

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Jacksonville Webpage:  weather.gov/jax
NWS Jacksoville Facebook:  facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Jacksonville.gov
NWS Jacksonville Twitter:   twitter.com/NWSJacksonville
AHPS River Forecasts:  water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax