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Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Exceedance Product Description

Product Description Documents

  1. Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities:
  2. Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Exceedance Products:


  1. Overview
  2. Product Description (for 10-90% exceedance)
  3. Format & Science Basis
  4. Availability
  5. Examples

2. Product Description (for 10-90% exceedance products)

The Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Exceedance products consist of a series of storm surge height graphics for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The graphics indicate the storm surge heights which will be exceeded by a given percentage of storms. The suite of graphics range from 10 to 90 percent, at 10 percent intervals. The storm surge graphics are based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and accounts for track, size, and intensity errors based on historical errors. Additional information on the SLOSH model can be found at:

2.1 Audience and Presenation format

The emergency management community is the primary target audience. However, this product will also be widely used by other federal, state, and local government agencies; the media; maritime interests; and the general public.

Graphics will be displayed on the internet as .png files at: GRIB2 and ESRI shape files can also be downloaded from the website. In addition, GRIB2 data is provided over NOAAPORT, and to the National Digital Guidance Database.

    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    Meteorological Development Laboratory
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
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    Page last Modified: March 28, 2011.
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